If X happens by EOY 2024, will Netanyahu be replaced as prime minister by EOY 2025?
Mini
5
Ṁ417
Dec 31
22%
IDF takes control over Rafah
20%
Baseline (will be resolved to YES or NO only)
20%
Yoav Gallant quits or gets fired over dispute with Netanyahu
20%
Benny Gants quits or gets fired over dispute with Netanyahu
Resolved
N/A
Bezalel Smotrich quits or gets fired over dispute with Netanyahu
Resolved
N/A
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalizes relations

At the end of 2024, I'll resolve all the options that didn't happen to N/A. Then at the end of 2025 I'll resolve the remaining options by whether or not Netanyahu serves as the prime minister of Israel.

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