MANIFOLD
BrowseUS ElectionNewsAbout
Will a misaligned AI kill 1% of the world population within any 12 month period before 2030?
➕
Plus
10
Ṁ599
2030
4%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL

YES = if a misaligned AI is the primary cause of death of at least 1% of the population (~81-85M deaths based on current projections) within any 12 month period that ends before 2030.

#️ Technology
#AI
#AI Safety
#AI risk
#AI Doom
#Existential Risk
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Comments

Related questions

Will a misaligned AI kill 1% of the world population within any 12 month period before 2035?
14% chance
Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2040?
14% chance
Will more than 1000 deaths be caused by misaligned AI before 2028?
13% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000,000,000 (1bn) people before 2040?
7% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 100,000,000 people before 2040?
10% chance
Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2050?
18% chance
Will AI kill >20% of the human population before 2030?
5% chance
Will AI cause a global catastrophe killing at least 10% of humans before 2100?
30% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000,000 people before 2040?
25% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000,000,000 (1bn) people before 2029?
5% chance

Related questions

Will a misaligned AI kill 1% of the world population within any 12 month period before 2035?
14% chance
Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2050?
18% chance
Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2040?
14% chance
Will AI kill >20% of the human population before 2030?
5% chance
Will more than 1000 deaths be caused by misaligned AI before 2028?
13% chance
Will AI cause a global catastrophe killing at least 10% of humans before 2100?
30% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000,000,000 (1bn) people before 2040?
7% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000,000 people before 2040?
25% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 100,000,000 people before 2040?
10% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000,000,000 (1bn) people before 2029?
5% chance
BrowseElectionNewsAbout