Conditional on Trump/Biden NOT winning, who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (DERIVATIVE MARKET, READ DESC)
Mini
24
αΉ6359resolved Nov 3
1D
1W
1M
ALL
99%96%
Kamala Harris
1%0.3%Other
0.2%
Michelle Obama
0.7%
Gavin Newsom
0.4%
Nikki Haley
0.4%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
0.2%
Dean Phillips
0.2%
Vivek Ramaswamy
0.2%
Hillary Clinton
0.2%
Elise Stefanik (R-NY Representative)
0.2%
Kristi Noem (R, SD Governor)
0.2%
Ron DeSantis
0.2%
Tim Scott (R-SC Senator)
0.1%
Chris Christie
0.1%
Mike Pence
0.1%
Ted Cruz
0.2%
Asa Hutchinson
0.2%
Tucker Carlson
0.2%
Gretchen Whitmer (D, Michigan Governor)
This market will resolve at a random time in November before election day. At resolution, this market resolves according to the implied odds given by the main US Elections market conditioned on neither Biden nor Trump winning:
For a simplified example, if the above market has the following probabilities when this market closes:
Joe Biden - 49%
Donald Trump - 47%
Kamala Harris - 3%
Robert F Kennedy Jr. - 1%
Then this market will resolve as following:
Kamala Harris - 75%
Robert F Kennedy Jr. - 25%
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