Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States conducts a new national census before January 1, 2030. A national census is defined as a comprehensive enumeration of the entire U.S. population, typically conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau. The market will resolve to "No" if no such census occurs before the specified date.

Background

The U.S. Constitution mandates a decennial census, with the next scheduled for April 1, 2030. (census.gov) However, on August 7, 2025, President Donald Trump directed the Commerce Department to create a new census excluding undocumented migrants, aiming to reflect "modern day facts and figures." (reuters.com) This initiative revives a previous attempt during his first term, which faced legal challenges and was reversed by President Joe Biden in 2021. (reuters.com)