This market resolves YES if any one thing from the listed things happens in 2026
Leader Exits
Donald Trump leaves office before end of 2026 (death, resignation, impeachment, removal, etc.)
Vladimir Putin leaves office
Xi Jinping leaves office
Geopolitical & Unexpected Events
China invades or blockades Taiwan
Enemy troops on American soil (invasion or combat operations)
USA men's team wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup
Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 USD
OpenAI officially claims AGI achieved internally
New major pandemic causes widespread flight cancellations (at least 100 international flights canceled)
Nuclear bomb detonation above ground
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce publicly break up or divorce
Quantum computing breakthrough ("Q-Day") cracks major encryption, causing widespread crypto/market panic
S&P 500 drops >40% from its 2025 peak
Sam Altman is out as OpenAI CEO for more than three weeks
Washington, D.C. officially becomes the 51st state
AI directly causes one of the following:
Death(s) of human(s) (unrelated to suicide encouragement)
Discovers and exploits a zero-day vulnerability without human prompting, causing ≥$100M USD worldwide damages
Solves an unsolved mathematics problem listed on Wikipedia (problem must have its own wiki page)
Celebrity Deaths
MrBeast
Taylor Swift
Timothée Chalamet
Zendaya
Billie Eilish
Lionel Messi
Cristiano Ronaldo
Travis Kelce
Kanye West
Pope Leo XIV
Major US Tragedies
Mass shooting or terrorist attack causes >100 deaths in a single US state in one day
Mass casualty accident (e.g., plane, train, infrastructure) causes >1,000 deaths in a single US state
Natural disaster causes >20,000 deaths in a single US state
Politics & Supreme Court
SCOTUS upholds Trump's executive order limiting or ending birthright citizenship
One party wins 75 or more seats in the U.S. Senate after 2026 midterms
A Canadian province formally votes to secede or join the United States