Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the candidate who is officially declared the winner of the 2026 election for California's 16th State Senate district. The official results will be sourced from the California Secretary of State's website.

Background

California's 16th State Senate district encompasses parts of Fresno, Kern, Kings, and Tulare counties. The district has a history of competitive elections. In the 2022 election, incumbent Democrat Melissa Hurtado narrowly defeated Republican David Shepard by a margin of 22 votes. (elections-daily.com)

As of July 2025, no candidates have officially declared their intention to run in the 2026 election for this district. However, given the district's competitive nature, it is anticipated that both major parties will field strong candidates.

Considerations

The 2026 election will be influenced by several factors, including redistricting changes implemented after the 2020 Census, which may affect the district's demographic composition. Additionally, voter turnout patterns, especially in midterm elections, could play a significant role in determining the outcome. (elections-daily.com)