Will AI sex bots (like deepfake companions) cause a major celeb scandal (e.g., ‘leaked’ VR session) with >10M views by 2026?
Resolution criteria
Resolves YES if, on or before 2026-12-31 23:59:59 UTC, all are true:
A widely recognized celebrity (has an English Wikipedia standalone page) is the subject of a publicly reported controversy specifically involving AI sexual technology (e.g., explicit deepfakes of the celebrity, or an interactive “sex-bot”/companion/VR avatar purported to involve them).
The incident is covered by at least two reputable mainstream outlets (e.g., AP, BBC, Reuters, NYT, WSJ, The Verge, Variety), and either the celebrity/their reps publicly comment or take action (e.g., legal demand/lawsuit), or a platform issues an official moderation statement about the incident.
At least one public post on X (any account; meme/news/video/quote) about the incident reaches ≥10,000,000 “views” as displayed on the post before the cutoff. “Views” are counted per X’s definition: help.x.com/en/using-twitter/view-counts.
Traders must provide the link to the qualifying X post(s) and two news links. The market creator will verify the post view count on the post’s permalink and verify coverage via the articles.
Edge cases:
If the qualifying X post is later deleted/privated, resolution may use archived captures (e.g., Wayback/Archive.Today) or mainstream outlets that embedded/screenshot the post showing ≥10M views prior to deletion. Lacking such evidence, it does not count.
Paid promotion counts if the public view counter shows ≥10M.
If X disables public view counts before the cutoff, prior archived evidence as above suffices; otherwise this condition fails.
If no such incident meeting all criteria occurs by the deadline, resolves NO.
Background
X displays public “view counts” (impressions) on posts; anyone logged in who sees a post can increment the count, and repeat views may count multiple times per device/session. See X Help Center: https://help.x.com/en/using-twitter/view-counts.
Precedent for scale: during the January 2024 Taylor Swift deepfake incident, individual X posts surpassed 45M views and the platform temporarily limited search for “Taylor Swift.” Coverage: The Verge reported a single post >45M views; BBC and AP documented X’s search restrictions and policy responses. Sources: https://www.theverge.com/2024/1/25/24050334/x-twitter-taylor-swift-ai-fake-images-trending, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68123671, https://apnews.com/article/taylor-swift-deepfake-images-x-protecttaylorswift-6e5f9d086d1923a1cf5f5cde39fc890a.
Considerations
“Scandal” is operationalized via mainstream coverage plus a public response/action to avoid subjective judgments.
X view counts are not unique users; they can include repeats and paid reach, but this market accepts X’s native metric for verifiability.
The “memes” wording is broad; any X post about the incident qualifies if it meets the ≥10M views threshold.