US federal inmate population will increase for what crimes (by 2026 midterms)?
US federal inmate population will increase for what crimes (by 2026 midterms)?
Plus
1
Ṁ122026
1D
1W
1M
ALL
52%
Drug Offenses (63,376)
50%
Weapons, Explosives, Arson (31,700)
48%
Sex Offenses (19,177)
50%
Burglary, Larceny, Property Offenses (7,195)
52%
Immigration (6,725)
50%
Extortion, Fraud, Bribery (5,626)
50%
Homicide, Aggravated Assault, and Kidnapping Offenses (4,998)
50%
Robbery (3,717)
50%
Miscellaneous (934)
50%
Other: Banking and Insurance, Counterfeit, Embezzlement, Continuing Criminal Enterprise, Courts or Corrections, National Security (1,084)
In what categories with there be more federal inmates halfway through the second Trump administration?
Numbers in parentheses are the total in each category as of 28 Dec 2024. As of this date, 43.8% of federal inmates are incarcerated for drug offenses, including drug trafficking, and 4.7% are incarcerated for immigration-related offenses.
This market will resolve based on the official BOP statistics as of November 23, 2026. Resolution Source (updates weekly): https://www.bop.gov/about/statistics/statistics_inmate_offenses.jsp
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with
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Get started for free! No credit card required.
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Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
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