
When will be the first terrorist attack using "DJI style" drones?
Plus
7
Ṁ6182036
1D
1W
1M
ALL
27%
2025
43%
2026
41%
2027
41%
2028
41%
2029
43%
2030
41%
2031
48%
2032
50%
2033
57%
2034
88%
2035
33%
After 2035
I'm specifically talking about small civilian-bought or home made drones, not anything intended for military purposes like the US military uses.
To make it a bit clearer what's a terrorist attack vs an attempted attack, at least one targeted person must be killed in the attack.
If the first attack happens in 20XX, then all years 20XX and above will resolve to YES. Each year will resolve NO when that year ends without an attack. If it's unclear at year's end, I'll wait for clarity before resolving that year.
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Related questions
Related questions
Will there be a drone terror attack that kills at least 1 person in the United States before 2026?
42% chance
Will a politician be assassinated by a Group 1 drone in a WEIRD country before end of Q1 2025?
6% chance
[Metaculus] Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?
21% chance
Will a drone swarm cause havoc in a major city by 2026?
48% chance
When will a notable American politician or corporate executive be assassinated by drone?
24% chance
When will the first murder of a civilian happen in a US city by a robot or AI device where an operator is not nearby
Will a civilian be killed by an individually-targeted, AI-guided, kamikaze aerial drone by the end of 2024?
15% chance
When will a notable American politician or corporate executive be assassinated by a cheap non state drone within the US?
22% chance
When will the first anti-AGI terror attack occur?
Will there be an attack on US civilians committed primarily with drones with >9 casualties before 2031?
56% chance