When will the EU cease to exist?
When will the EU cease to exist?
➕
Plus
30
Ṁ7015
2160
4%
Up to 2028
6%
2029-2036
10%
2037-2049
20%
2050-2070
20%
2071-2104
19%
2105-2159
21%
2160 or after

Resolves according to the [Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19836/end-of-the-eu/).

If the answer buckets seem weird, that's because they have a Fibonacci number of years (starting with 5). This was easier and more integer than using exponentials.

#Europe
#European Union
#EU politics
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4 Comments
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4mo

Large differences with the related metaculus estimates

4mo

@AntoineBonnet I wonder to what extent this is due to the different question format - continuous there and these weird Fibonacci buckets I came up with here.

1y

I like the Fibonacci buckets

1y

@andri thank you! I'm moderately proud of my brain for coming up with the idea.

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