Any 2024 election "surprise"? (stricter definition of surprise)
8
Ṁ997Jan 1
48%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question regards the order of state margins in the 2024 election:
Current order per https://manifold.markets/election
Lean Dem:
CO: 88% D
NH: 85% D
ME: 84% D
NM: 79% D
MN: 79% D
VA: 78% D
Swing states:
MI: 55% D
PA: 51% D
WI: 50% D
NV: 58% R
GA: 59% R
AZ: 59% R
NC: 67% R
Lean R:
OH: 85% R
FL: 90% R
TX: 93% R
AK: 93% R
IA: 93% R
This will resolve as yes if any Lean Dem state votes more Republican than the median swing state OR if any Lean Rep State votes more Democratic than the median swing state.
Motivation for this question:
Nate Silver gave TX/FL 2/3% chance of being the tipping point, this is low compared to >10% each in 538s model.
JHK is more in line with 538s view (8-9%), but Nate Silver is highly respected. Is he right?
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Related questions
Related questions
What is going to be the October surprise?
Will any state result "surprise" us in the 2024 Election?
77% chance
Will there be a significant surprise in 2024 that will shape the year?
75% chance
Will there be any upsets in the 2024 US Presidential election?
36% chance
If there is an October Surprise in the 2024 Presidential election, who will it affect?
Will the 2024 presidential election feature an upset in a state?
35% chance
Will there be an “October Surprise” in the 2024 Presidential Election?
77% chance
What will be the "October Surprise" of the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Will the 2024 election have an entertaining outcome?
36% chance
Will there be an unsurprising October surprise?
33% chance