When will China invade Taiwan?
14
แน€2639
2050
4%
2025
6%
2026
13%
2027
10%
2028
7%
2029
21%
2030-2034
7%
2035-2039
7%
2040-2049
26%
Not before 2050

Creating this market because I think the year by year probabilities in my other market are a bit off (at market creation 25% chance of an invasion in 2028 which is a US election year). This will resolve to the same date as the other market - have fun arbitraging!

(I did some initial trades on this market to bring the probabilities in line with the other market, but won't trade further expect to exit that position)

Get แน€1,000 play money