An American quickly has at least 160 children in a 4 year interval, anytime through 2036
An American quickly has at least 160 children in a 4 year interval, anytime through 2036
Mini
3
Ṁ87
2036
18%
chance

They must be American and living in the USA, reported by US media.

They must have multiple children via wives/surrogates/etc such that there is a time interval of 4 years such that there are at least 160 children born within it. The person of interest can be the father or mother, as long as the children are substantially their genetic children (some minor genetic modification may be allowed)

e.g. this story, where through surrogates, they have a huge number of children with birthdays just a few months apart: - children ages: Mustafa, 19 months; Mariam, 18 months; Ayrin, 18 months; Alisa, 18 months; Hasan, 17 months; Judi, 17 months; Harper, 16 months; Teresa, 16 months; Huseyin, 16 months and Anna, 15 months.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-10934703/Russian-woman-21-babies-Turkish-millionaire-devastated-arrest.html

Woman who has 21 babies with millionaire is devastated by his arrest
Kristina Ozturk, 24, who lives in Batumi, Georgia, has 21 surroagte children with Galip Ozturk, 57, who owns the bus company Metro Turizm. He had already fled a murder sentence in Turkey.
#Human population crisis
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Comments
3 Holders
3 Trades


What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with S Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
Learn more.

Related questions