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Russian attacks or invades Finland by mid 2026
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22
Ṁ1577
2026
6%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL

Credible sources, battles or clear Russian troops on the other side of the border. Or, bombs them, or does drone strikes. Or other kinetic attacks.

Threats leading to concessions of territory or political union would not count because it's too hard to evaluate. There has to be at least a shot fired.

#🇷🇺 Russia
#Geopolitics
#Finland
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