Will Trump win the 2026 Nobel Peace Price if there's peace in Ukraine?
30
αΉ€4337
2027
5%
Peace and Nobel
38%
Peace but no Nobel
54%
No peace, no Nobel
2%
No peace, Nobel anyway

Peace before 2027. There doesn't have to be an explicit causal relationship, just whether the two things happen.

This is a derivative market; it will resolve exactly according to these underlying markets:

Previously:

/EvanDaniel/will-trump-win-the-2025-nobel-peace

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