Will a NATO or EU nation declare a national emergency due to AI before 2026?
Will a NATO or EU nation declare a national emergency due to AI before 2026?
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27
Ṁ762Dec 31
15%
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By AI, we mean: any threat, disaster, or attack that is substantially of AI/ML origin, control, influence - or is at the heart of cause for declaring an emergency.
This could include a major data breach or loss of digital services due to an attack using AI. It could include a AI drone swarm attack. It could include prolific creation and spread of misinformation generated by AI.
The AI involved does not be controlled by a person, state, or organisation. It does not need to be a sophisticated model, architecture, etc. for this question to resolve.
To resolve, a nation in NATO or the EU at the time must declare a state of emergency due to a threat, disaster or attack substantively caused, powered or enabled by AI.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with
Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
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