Will augmented reality (AR) contact lenses be a thing before 2030 ?
Will augmented reality (AR) contact lenses be a thing before 2030 ?
Mini
3
Ṁ40
2029
30%
chance

Would be 'a thing' :

  • A usable and reliable AR lense exist that most people can wear as contact lense to experience AR , even with a bad autonomy.

  • A convicing prototype, even expensive, featuring all aspect of reasonnable quality AR, tried by trustable sources would count.

  • A valid AR lense would feature at least a functionnal overlay display with a minimum of 1Hz refresh rate, some interactions like navigating a menu, allow movement of the user during use, keep track of some elements of surrounding.

  • Spacial mapping capability of the contact lense can be helped by external device.

  • General public must be at least aware of it.

Would not be 'a thing' :

  • Barely usable lense or prototype would not count.

  • Creating heavy motion sickness to a majority of people would not count.

  • Creating systematic pain to average healthy user would not count.

  • Creating constant heavy disorientation or preventing space awarness would not count.

  • An hypothetical leaked military secret would not count.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with S Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
Learn more.