When will the USA legalise prediction markets for elections?
When will the USA legalise prediction markets for elections?
Mini
5
Ṁ2162028
1D
1W
1M
ALL
4%
1 Jan 2024
6%
1 Jan 2025
6%
1 Jan 2026
6%
1 Jan 2027
6%
1 Jan 2028
73%
Later than this/never
The USA presently regards prediction markets to be illegal gambling for elections. Resolves when this changes.
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with
Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
Learn more.Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with
Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
Learn more.Related questions
Will real money prediction markets become legal in the US by the end of 2025?
49% chance
Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?
45% chance
Will real money political prediction markets be legal before 2029 conditional on who wins the presidential election?
Real money political prediction markets will be legal in the US for a month before 2030
80% chance
Will Trump legalize prediction markets?
86% chance
Will the CFTC permit real-money prediction markets on the 2028 US Presidential Election?
82% chance
Will anyone in the US be prosecuted for betting in an illegal prediction market before 2026?
17% chance
Will it be legal for Americans to bet on elections in 2026?
85% chance
If Trump wins in 2024, will real money political prediction markets be legal before 2029?
36% chance
If prediction markets become mostly legal in the US by 2030, was it because of actions by Congress?
22% chance