Will there be a new crisis before the 2024 election?
22
Ṁ501Nov 6
42%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will there be a new crisis before the 2024 election?
Examples include:
A new viral threat that ends with government regulation similar to 2020
A new war (or Israel/Ukraine heats up to the point that there are significant U.S. boots on the ground)
Major chains of riots (like the BLM riots of summer 2020 - not a single riot, or a brief couple of days of rioting)
Economic crisis akin to 2008/2020 - not just a drop in markets
In the end, this will be based on my judgment, and because of that I will not bet on this market.
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Related questions
Related questions
Will there be an international or global crisis in the year 2024?
Will the 2024 US presidential election trigger a constitutional crisis?
28% chance
Will there be a Manifold Markets Financial Crisis in 2024? When?
Will there be significant social unrest, protests, riots, etc. over the results of the 2024 presidential election?
71% chance
Will there be major economic news that affects the 2024 US election?
65% chance
Will the US undergo a major political crisis before 2027
65% chance
Conditional on Trump/Biden winning the 2024 presidential, will there be a large scale rioting in the US before 2026 ?
Will there be an “October Surprise” in the 2024 Presidential Election?
77% chance
What major events will occur in connection with 2024 election?
Will there be a huge economic crisis that will impact the global economy in 2024?
23% chance