Before 2026, will a US ship clash with a Chinese ship at Sabina Shoal?
Mini
2
แน45Dec 31
33%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
US ship: Navy or Coast Guard
Chinese ship: Navy, Coast Guard or Maritime Militia
Clash: physical contact or projectile weapons fired (INCLUDING WATER CANNON). Reports of sonic or laser weapons fired will also cause a YES resolution
This is a deliberately 'low-bar' market primarily testing whether the US and China have any appetite for conflict with each other over the Chinese-Filipino Sabina Shoal dispute.
I will not bet in this market
Get แน1,000 play money
Related questions
Related questions
Will China occupy the Second Thomas Shoal before 2026?
44% chance
Will a Filipino, Chinese or US national be killed on or near Sabine Shoal before 2026?
50% chance
Will China occupy the Second Thomas Shoal before 2027?
47% chance
Will a Filipino, Chinese or US national be killed on or near Sabine Shoal before 2027?
64% chance
Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2026?
25% chance
Will China occupy the Second Thomas Shoal before 2030?
55% chance
Will there be a conflict over the South China Sea between two claimant states by the end of 2025?
30% chance
Will a Filipino, Chinese or US national be killed on or near the Second Thomas Shoal before 2027?
51% chance
Will there be a cuban missile crisis level incident in the south china sea by end of 2027?
38% chance
Will China sink a US aircraft carrier before 2030?
16% chance