Taiwan 2028 Long Range Market: Will any 'Green' party, except the DPP, win seats in the 2028 Legislative Election?
Taiwan 2028 Long Range Market: Will any 'Green' party, except the DPP, win seats in the 2028 Legislative Election?
Mini
2
Ṁ15
2028
55%
chance

Here 'green' means Taiwan nationalist rather than 'environmentally friendly'. (although the Green Party Taiwan is green in both senses)

To qualify for YES resolution, a party must be listed as a member of the Pan-Green Coalition on Wikipedia. Reiteration that the DPP is excluded.

Note that the NPP is not a member even though they are a 'green' party, but this could change.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pan-Green_Coalition

This is part of a series of 'long range' markets for the Taiwan 2028 Presidential Election, hopefully focused on questions that might bubble away over the next four years.

#Elections: World
#🇹🇼 Taiwan
#Taiwan Domestic Politics
#Taiwan 2028
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Comments
2 Holders
3 Trades


What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with S Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
Learn more.

Related questions