Criminal charges filed for Palisades Fire by the end of 2025?
โž•
Plus
12
แน€2301
2026
27%
chance

In 2025, will any individual(s) be charged with a crime related to starting the Palisades Fire that began on January 7 2025? My goal in this market is to capture the theme of "did a malicious or very negligent individual start this fire?" with clear resolution criteria.

The person must be charged with actions that proximally (within a few hours of taking the action, or as a direct consequence of the action) led to the fire. Some examples of actions that will resolve this YES:

  • intentional arson

  • improper disposal of a cigarette butt

  • letting a camping stove fire get out of control

  • setting off fireworks/sparklers

  • failing to put out a campfire the night before

I'm leaving out fires caused by necessary/government-commissioned activities or super indirect crimes. Some examples of things that will NOT resolve this market YES (even if charges are filed) are:

  • a power company employee/executive failing to maintain safe electrical transmission infrastructure

  • a government employee or contractor leaving hot machinery running too close to an ignitable object while performing their assigned duties

  • A person committing arson 10 or more miles away, which released a wind-blown ember that ignited this fire

The Resolution will be based on official announcements from law enforcement agencies or court records indicating criminal charges have been filed.

Get แน€1,000 play money