Will "A Rocket–Interpretability Analogy" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Will "A Rocket–Interpretability Analogy" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Mini
0
2026
14%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.
This market will resolve to 100% if the post A Rocket–Interpretability Analogy is one of the top fifty posts of the 2024 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with
Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
Learn more.Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with
Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
Learn more.Related questions
Will "The Standard Analogy" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
14% chance
Will "Introducing Open Asteroid Impact" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
15% chance
Will "o1: A Technical Primer" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
13% chance
Will "The Leopold Model: Analysis and Reactions" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
13% chance
Will "What Goes Without Saying" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
15% chance
Will "The Local Interaction Basis: Identifying Comp..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
14% chance
Will "Lsusr's Rationality Dojo" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
17% chance
Will "EIS XIII: Reflections on Anthropic’s SAE Rese..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
17% chance
Will "Non-Disparagement Canaries for OpenAI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
16% chance
Will "An Extremely Opinionated Annotated List of My..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
38% chance