Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that China has switched over a substantial fraction of its industrial overcapacity to the production of military hardware before January 1st, 2030.
Criteria for Resolution:
Strong Evidence:
The shift must be reported by at least two reputable sources, such as major international news outlets, recognized defense analysts, or official government publications.
Acceptable sources include but are not limited to: The New York Times, BBC, Reuters, Jane's Defence Weekly, SIPRI (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute), and official statements from the Chinese government or the Ministry of National Defense.
Substantial Fraction:
Defined as at least 20% of China's documented industrial overcapacity being redirected to military production.
Overcapacity refers to industrial facilities that are not fully utilized for civilian production and have the potential to produce additional goods without significant new investment.
Conversion to Military Production:
The overcapacity must be actively used to produce military hardware, including but not limited to:
Weapons systems (missiles, firearms, artillery)
Military vehicles (tanks, aircraft, naval vessels)
Ammunition and explosives
Military communication and surveillance equipment
Mere announcements of intent or plans without actual implementation will not be considered sufficient.
Time Frame:
The conversion must occur before January 1st, 2030.
Evidence must indicate that the shift started and was operational before this date.
Exclusions:
Routine military expansion proportional to economic growth or defense budget increases does not count.
Temporary or short-term conversions lasting less than six months will be excluded.
Production of dual-use goods (items that have both civilian and military applications) will only be counted if there is clear evidence they are intended primarily for military use.