Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.

Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.

Trade with Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.

Get started for free! No credit card required.

There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.

By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.

Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.

As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.