AGI defined as transformative, at least human-level, but potentially superhuman AI, capable of doing at least any cognitive task humans can do, at least at human level.

Related to: https://manifold.markets/MarioCannistra/will-we-get-agi-before-2026

Will we get AGI before 2026?

18% chance. AGI defined as transformative, at least human-level, but potentially superhuman AI, capable of doing at least any cognitive task humans can do, at least at human level.