(70% confidence)

I’d (ed: Scott had) correctly predicted last year that the government would block the JetBlue-Spirit merger. But this one’s different. While airline mergers are bad for cheap flight lovers, this merger won’t have nearly as dramatic an impact on fares as Spirit’s would. (Hawaiian has a smaller network than Spirit and is rarely the cheapest option; Spirit is almost always the cheapest and pushes down fares on full-service competitors.) I don’t like the merger, but I suspect it will get a green light from regulators.

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Did you enjoy this prediction? Check out the rest of the series!

This question is from Scott Keyes' travel points and miles predictions at Going.com. This is the 3rd year Scott has made travel predictions, and the continuation of the prediction series I ran last year. I am an unaffiliated Manifold user replicating the proposals here on Manifold.

I will resolve this market based on Scott's self-stated resolution at the end of the year. See notes below.

In the same fashion I used for Scott Keyes' predictions last year, I am setting the close date ahead of the end of this year to (try to) avoid a situation where the resolutions post before the market closes. In the event that his resolution post falls in 2025, my apologies in advance. If he hasn't posted resolutions at all by February 1, 2025, I will do my best to resolve them personally, and set N/A for any questions that I can't determine with outside (non-Going) source data.