Will chips covered by the 2022 US export controls be exported to China before the following dates? (2026)
Mini
3
Ṁ32Dec 31
38%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
From https://metaculus.com//questions/15551/2026/
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Related questions
Related questions
Will chips covered by the 2022 US export controls be exported to China before the following dates? (2032)
58% chance
China announces retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods by Oct 18, 2025?
40% chance
Will the US permit China to buy B200 chips before the end of 2025?
20% chance
Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026?
79% chance
China extends rare-earth export licenses for US-linked manufacturers by Dec 20, 2025?
60% chance
US bans TSMC from selling advanced AI chips to all Chinese companies in 2025?
46% chance
Will the CHIPS Act be repealed in 2025?
9% chance
US export restrictions lead to reported large-scale AI chip theft by end of 2026
53% chance
Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny all, allow US or int'l licensing)
5% chance
Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow US or int'l licensing)
20% chance