The EIA will issue an Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) in the Spring of 2026. This market concerns the Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) forecast U.S. market share for new passenger vehicles in 2026. This does not include hybrids.

We expect this projection for 2026 ICE share will be in the "Transportation" section.

If there is no explicit 2026 ICE market share projection, we may fall back to an clearly implied forecast 2026 market share at discretion (for example if absolute sales are projected).

In the unlikely event there is no clearly implied forecast we may fall back to asking grok "based on your reading of this report, what is your best estimate of the authors' estimate of U.S. market share for ICE in new passenger vehicles in 2026?".

The market will resolve to N/A if, contrary to expectation, no forecast for 2026 market share of ICE is provided.

The market will resolve to N/A if no report is issued by the end of April 2026.

Resolution criteria

• Resolve to the single answer that matches the U.S. EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2026 Reference case projection for calendar-year 2026 market share (%) of new light-duty vehicle (LDV) sales that are ICE-only (conventional gasoline and diesel), explicitly excluding hybrids (HEV), plug-in hybrids (PHEV), battery-electrics (BEV), and fuel cells. Use the Transportation section’s “light-duty vehicle sales by powertrain/technology” table or chart in AEO 2026. If multiple cases are presented, use Reference case only. The AEO interactive tables/API and XLSX data tables are the resolution sources. (eia.gov)

• If AEO 2026 shows absolute LDV sales by powertrain but not shares, compute: ICE share = (conventional gasoline + conventional diesel sales) / total new LDV sales. Round to one decimal place. If answers are ranges, choose the narrowest range containing the value; if multiple answers are equally narrow, resolve to the earliest-added.

• Interpret “passenger vehicles” as EIA LDVs (cars + light trucks). If EIA renames categories, map “conventional” ICE-only vehicles accordingly; hybrids remain excluded.

• N/A if no AEO 2026 is published by April 30, 2026, or if AEO 2026 provides no explicit or implied 2026 ICE share. (eia.gov)

Background

• AEO is EIA’s annual long-term U.S. energy outlook with sector tables and an interactive data browser; AEO 2025 (released April 15, 2025) restored full tables and APIs after EIA skipped 2024 to upgrade modeling. AEO 2026 is expected to follow the same structure, including Transportation sector LDV sales by powertrain. (eia.gov)

• For context on recent U.S. LDV powertrain trends: EVs reached about 10% of 2024 U.S. LDV sales; hybrids grew rapidly, reducing ICE share relative to prior years. These trends inform expectations but do not affect resolution (which uses AEO 2026 only). (theicct.org)

Considerations

• EIA sometimes reports both percentage shares and absolute sales by powertrain; this market specifies a calculation fallback if only levels are published.

• AEO reports calendar-year sales; do not use model-year data from other agencies (e.g., EPA/NHTSA).

• AEO includes multiple side cases; only Reference case is valid for resolution to avoid policy-scenario ambiguity. (eia.gov)

Family of related markets

• ICE - https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/eia-projection-for-us-ice-market-sh

• HEV - https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/eia-projection-for-us-hev-market-sh

• BEV - https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/eia-projection-for-us-ev-market-sha

• PHEV - https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/eia-projection-for-us-phev-market-s