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Will an LLM that someone is trying to shut down stop or avoid that in some way before 2026?
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Dec 31
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Will there be major breakthrough in LLM Continual Learning before 2026?
25% chance
Will LLMs mostly overcome the Reversal Curse by the end of 2025?
68% chance
Will an LLM do a task that the user hadn't requested in a notable way before 2026?
92% chance
Will the most advanced LLM stop being from a US-based company any time before 2030?
34% chance
Will the leading LLM at the beginning of 2026 still be subject to the reversal curse?
59% chance
Will Apple release its own LLM on par with state of the art LLMs before 2026?
7% chance
Will Google cancel an LLM-based product by end of 2025?
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Will LLMs become a ubiquitous part of everyday life by June 2026?
82% chance
Will RL work for LLMs "spill over" to the rest of RL by 2026?
34% chance
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50% chance
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