Background

Currently, four states (California, Minnesota, North Dakota, and Oklahoma) have complete bans on noncompete agreements. Several other states have passed legislation restricting noncompetes for certain workers or situations, and some states like New York and Maine have attempted to pass full bans but were vetoed.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve based on the number of U.S. states that have enacted and implemented full bans on noncompete agreements as of December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. A "full ban" means the state prohibits noncompete agreements for all or nearly all workers, with only very limited exceptions (such as for sale of business).

For resolution purposes:

• Laws must be enacted and in effect (not just passed) by the resolution date

• Partial bans (e.g., only for low-wage workers) do not count

• Washington D.C., territories, and other non-state jurisdictions do not count

• If a ban is passed but faces legal challenges, it will only count if it remains in effect at resolution

• If a ban is passed but implementation is delayed beyond the resolution date, it will not count

In addition, if noncompetes are fully banned federally, all states affected by the federal ban will be counted as having a noncompete ban. (Basically, a federal ban would cause this to resolve to 50+)

I would likely use this source to resolve this today, but I may not use that when this market is actually resolved. I will not bet on this market.

Considerations

• Legislative efforts can move slowly and face significant opposition from business interests

• States often follow each other's lead on employment law, potentially creating momentum for more bans

• Federal regulation of noncompetes is under consideration, which could impact state-level actions

• Court decisions or constitutional challenges could affect the validity of state bans