Background

The U.S. union membership rate has been steadily declining over the past few decades. As of 2024, the overall union membership rate is 9.9%, with public-sector workers having a much higher unionization rate (32.2%) compared to private-sector workers (5.9%). The rate has remained relatively stable in recent years, showing only minor fluctuations.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve based on the official Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) annual union membership report for 2028, which is typically released in January of the following year. The market will use the overall union membership rate for wage and salary workers in the United States.

If the BLS significantly changes its methodology for calculating union membership rates or stops publishing this data, the market will resolve based on the most credible statistics available. If no comparable statistic is available, the market will resolve as N/A. If the labor rate is exactly on the border of two ranges (i.e. 10.0%), this will resolve to the larger of the two ranges.

Considerations

• Major legislative changes, such as the PRO Act or similar labor laws, could significantly impact union membership rates

• Economic conditions and labor market dynamics between now and 2028 may affect unionization trends

• Industry-specific trends, particularly in emerging sectors or those experiencing significant technological change, could influence overall union membership rates

• The continuing shift in employment between public and private sectors could affect the overall rate, given the significant difference in unionization rates between these sectors

I will not bet on this market.