When will SpaceX successfully land Superheavy (Starship 1st stage) for the first time?
38
Ṁ14kJan 2
1D
1W
1M
ALL
1.1%
Before 2024-10-01
6%
Before 2024-11-01
32%
Before 2024-12-01
39%
Before 2025-01-01
67%
Before 2025-02-01
75%
Before 2025-03-01
Resolved
NOBefore 2024-08-01
Resolved
NOBefore 2024-09-01
The market resolves as soon as SpaceX manages to successfully land the first stage of the Starship rocket, aka Superheavy. Presumably the rocket will be captured by the launch tower, though other methods of landing would qualify, as long as it lands on land or on a barge. The rocket has to stay in one piece for at leave 1 hour of the landing.
I do not bet on my own questions:
Related questions:
/OlegEterevsky/when-will-spacex-successfully-land-o1e8o780ic
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Related questions
Related questions
Will SpaceX land a Super Heavy booster, as part of a space-bound flight, in 2024?
34% chance
When will SpaceX successfully land Starship for the first time?
By which flight will SpaceX successfully recover both Starship and its Booster?
When will SpaceX first reuse Superheavy (Starship 1st stage)?
Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?
28% chance
Will SpaceX attempt to deploy Starlink satellites in the first fully-orbital Starship–SuperHeavy flight?
45% chance
Will SpaceX successfully catch a booster within the first five Starship flights?
47% chance
Will SpaceX successfully land Starship on Mars before January 1st 2030?
51% chance
By when will SpaceX re-fly a Super Heavy booster, as part of a space-bound flight
Before which Starship flight will SpaceX first announce they will *attempt* at least one orbit?