When will peace talks between Russia and Ukraine start?
When will peace talks between Russia and Ukraine start?
Mini
12
Ṁ8182050
2027
expected
1D
1W
1M
ALL
For the purposes of this market, I won't count:
Negotiations where one of the parties is not present (such as the UN summit proposed by Ukrainian FM Kuleba)
Negotiations about matters not including a permanent peace settlement (such as the grain deal or an armistice)
Negotiations conducted through intermediaries/backchannels (e.g. oligarchs or other third parties)
An announcement of peace talks without them actually taking place
This is an extension of two more specific markets:
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with
Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
Learn more.Related questions
When will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine?
Will there be official peace talks involving both Putin and Zelenskyy before Aug 2026?
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Will Ukraine and Russia have a cease-fire or peace before 2026?
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Will Ukraine reach a peace treaty with Russia before the end of 2025?
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Will Russia and Ukraine announce a ceasefire with an intended duration of at least 28 days before October 1st, 2025?
33% chance
When will the Ukraine war enter a state of "frozen conflict” or the ceasefire agreement is signed?
when will the Ukraine war stop?
2026