Sabato's Crystal Ball releases rankings for every state and district in the Electoral College, based on which candidate they are most likely to go to. The current forecast can be seen here: https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2024-president/

Although SCB uses toss-ups in the run-up to the election, their final forecast always moves the toss-ups into the lean Republican or lean Democratic column so that they have a pick for every state. In 2020, they picked every single state and district correctly, except for North Carolina:

How many will they pick correctly this time? There are a total of 56 picks to make (50 states + D.C. + Maine's two Congressional Districts and Nebraska's three).

If, for some reason, SCB decides not to pick the winner for one of their toss-ups and leaves it as a toss-up instead, that will not count as a correct pick, or even half of a correct pick.

Other represents all options <48, I might split it if traders think there's any chance that SCB will get that many wrong. For comparison, in 2016, they got 51 right, so I think it's pretty unlikely.