Due to a bug, at the time of this market's creation, https://manifold.markets/elections seemingly thinks that Idaho is the same state as Indiana. This inspired me to make a market comparing the two in the 2024 presidential election.

The Republican margin of victory in a state is the percentage of votes in that state won by the Republican nominee, minus the percentage won by the highest non-Republican candidate (if the Republican actually loses one of these states, the margin of victory is negative).

In 2020, Trump's margin of victory in Indiana was 16.1%, and his margin in Idaho was 30.8%, so this would have resolved NO, but it was pretty close.