Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to YES if the Australian Dollar (AUD) reaches or falls below 0.50 USD at any point before the end of 2026 (December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC). Otherwise, it resolves to NO.

The official exchange rate as reported by major financial data providers (such as Bloomberg, Reuters, or the Reserve Bank of Australia) will be used for resolution.

Background

The Australian Dollar has historically fluctuated based on factors including:

• Australia's economic performance

• Global commodity prices (particularly iron ore, coal, and natural gas)

• Interest rate differentials between Australia and the United States

• Global risk sentiment

• Trade relations, particularly with China

As of mid-2023, the AUD/USD exchange rate has been trading in the 0.65-0.70 range. The lowest the AUD has ever fallen against the USD in modern history was approximately 0.48 in April 2001 and briefly around 0.55 during the March 2020 COVID market crash.

Considerations

Current forecasts from financial institutions generally predict the AUD to remain above 0.60 USD throughout 2026, with most projections suggesting a range between 0.62 and 0.72. However, unexpected economic shocks, significant divergence in monetary policy between Australia and the US, or a major commodity price collapse could potentially drive the currency lower than current forecasts suggest.