Will we be able to prompt a Civilization game by April 2027?
Will we be able to prompt a Civilization game by April 2027?
7
Ṁ872027
23%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I found this discussion on X and thought it would make a great market:
https://x.com/neuralamp4ever/status/1900229985232617898?t=TR9UNO1rfoMvNog4VVJtjQ&s=19
It resolves Yes if by April 2027, someone is able to create a game like Civilization in less then 10 prompts, without any manual intervention.
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with 
Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
Learn more.Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
Learn more.Related questions
Will an expansion pack be released for Civilization 7 before July 2026?
51% chance
Will I be able to get an AI to play Inflection Point with me before the end of 2025?
23% chance
Will Paradox release a grand strategy game that covers the year 632 as part of its unmodded timeline by the end of 2029?
45% chance
Will I be able to get an AI to play Inflection Point with me before the end of 2035?
75% chance
Will Paradox release a NEW grand strategy game that covers the year 866 as part of its unmodded timeline by end 2029?
50% chance
Will Parkour Civilization 3 come out before the end of 2025?
47% chance
Will Paradox Interactive publish a fantasy grand strategy game before the end of 2027?
49% chance
Will Paradox Interactive publish a Cold War grand strategy game before the end of 2027?
32% chance
Will Paradox Interactive publish a fantasy grand strategy game before 2030?
79% chance
Will Paradox Interactive publish a grand strategy game set in 2000s/2010s before 2031?
18% chance