Resolution criteria
This market resolves YES if there is a change in the fundamental structure of Cuba's political system by December 31, 2029. Regime change is defined as a transition in the framework of institutions, laws, rules, and regulations governing the state—not merely a change in individual leaders within the existing communist system.
Resolution will be based on credible international news sources (Reuters, AP, BBC, etc.) documenting either: (1) the establishment of a multi-party democratic system, (2) a transition to a fundamentally different form of government, or (3) the collapse of the Communist Party's monopoly on political power. A change in individual leaders (e.g., Díaz-Canel being replaced by another communist official) does not constitute regime change.
The market resolves NO if the Communist Party maintains its constitutional monopoly on political power and the one-party system remains intact through 2029.
Background
Cuba's one-party communist state outlaws political pluralism, bans independent media, suppresses dissent, and severely restricts basic civil liberties. The country's economic crisis deepened during 2024, characterized by persistent inflation and widespread poverty; shortages of fuel, water, and food; and frequent and prolonged electricity outages, which triggered local protests and contributed to an ongoing exodus of Cubans seeking better lives abroad.
The think tank Cuba Siglo 21 indicates that the totalitarian governance system has collapsed, and that political regime change is a real possibility in 2025. The report stresses that the eventual death of Raúl Castro in 2025 could unleash internal struggles within the power elite, which, combined with popular discontent and international pressure, could lead to a transition to a new political model. Raúl Castro turned 94 in June, surpassing by almost twenty years the life expectancy of the average Cuban man. He had disappeared from the public eye in the summer of 2024 but resurfaced in late September when his public presence became essential to the stability of the regime. In 2025, he made few public appearances.
Considerations
The Cuban political regime, the only autocracy belonging to the Soviet model in the western hemisphere, shows a greater duration and stability to the rest of regional authoritarianisms. The regime has survived multiple existential crises since 1959, including the Bay of Pigs invasion, the Soviet Union's collapse, and the 2021 mass protests. Popular protests are still insufficient for the loss of power by the government and the oligarchy that controls it. The configuration of an entity to lead the change with a program of demands shared by the population is absent.