Invalid contract
Resolution criteria:
This market will resolve based on the number of individuals deported from the United States under President Donald Trump's administration during the year 2025. The final count will be determined using official data released by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) or other authoritative government sources. If such data is unavailable by January 1, 2026, the market will resolve as N/A.
Background:
In his 2024 presidential campaign, Donald Trump pledged to implement the largest deportation operation in U.S. history, aiming to deport millions of undocumented immigrants annually. His administration has proposed utilizing federal agencies, local law enforcement, and National Guard troops to facilitate these deportations. Additionally, plans include constructing large detention facilities to hold individuals awaiting deportation and invoking laws such as the 1798 Alien Enemies Act to expedite removals. (theguardian.com)
Legal experts have raised concerns about the constitutionality of deporting U.S. citizens, as suggested by President Trump in certain cases. The Supreme Court's 1967 decision in Afroyim v. Rusk affirms that U.S. citizenship cannot be revoked without consent, indicating that deporting natural-born or naturalized citizens would likely violate constitutional protections. (time.com)
The feasibility of achieving mass deportations on the scale proposed is also under scrutiny. Logistical challenges, including the need for significant increases in enforcement personnel, detention facilities, and immigration court resources, pose substantial obstacles. Moreover, such operations would require considerable funding and could face resistance from states and localities that do not support the administration's immigration policies. (cbsnews.com)
As of April 2025, the administration's deportation efforts have encountered legal challenges. For instance, a U.S. District Judge found probable cause to hold Trump administration officials in criminal contempt for defying a court order that halted deportations of alleged Venezuelan gang members to El Salvador. The administration has been given a deadline to comply with the court's directives or identify officials responsible for potential prosecution. (reuters.com)
Given these factors, the actual number of deportations carried out in 2025 may differ from the administration's initial projections. Traders should monitor official DHS reports and other credible sources for accurate data on deportation figures.