Each year, Gallup runs a survey asking Americans "Do you think marriages between same-sex couples should or should not be recognized by the law as valid, with the same rights as traditional marriages?" The most recent such poll, run in May 2024, showed support at 69%. How much will the results change between then and the May 2025 poll?

Since 2016, the results have been, in chronological order: 61%, 64%, 67%, 63%, 67%, 70%, 71%, 71%, 69%.

I will not bet on this market.