Resolves YES if GPT-5 is publicly released before Jan 1, 2025; resolves NO otherwise.
Update from March 18: If the next OpenAI flagship model deviates from the GPT-N naming scheme and there will clearly be no future model named GPT-5 that is going to be released from OpenAI (e.g. they completely changed the trajectory of their naming scheme) then I will count it as "GPT-5" regardless.
However, if the next flagship model is not called GPT-5 but still conforms to the OpenAI GPT-N naming scheme (e.g. GPT-4.5) or it is implied that there will eventually be a model called GPT-5 that will be released (i.e. they are going to continue with the same naming scheme) then I will not count it as "GPT-5".
https://x.com/sama/status/1834795291406483684
Suggests model codenamed Orion will be released by end of 2024. Recently, a departed OpenAI researcher described working on GPT-5. Seems clear this market is undervalued
@Bayesian Orion is the internally used codename of the next GPT model and is also a winter constellation
@Bayesian Wait just went back and checked it for some reason I initially thought the tweet said something about 2024 but it didn't. Haven't been getting enough sleep lol
@Bayesian I have no clue about constellations, but according to ChatGPT , asking when winter constellations rise, it says October or November
@JaundicedBaboon I agree that this tweet heavily implies GPT Orion (codename for GPT-5) being released before 2025, as the winter constellation Orion would rise in November and become fully visible by December. They are likely going to release a week or two after Claude 3.5 Opus releases to diminuish their competitors attention in media, and that model is likely to release in November or December.
We also plan to continue developing and releasing models in our GPT series, in addition to the new OpenAI o1 series.
a bit frustrating that they have just played with the naming scheme so much - that said, future markets would probably be better placed to be "best OpenAI models scores Y on some benchmark by X date" and then you don't have to worry about the naming scheme and can just place a bet on new model / capabilities
(I think it is almost certain at this point that the market will resolve to No)
@CampbellHutcheson they didnt play with the naming scheme. they explicitly said that o1 is a different series of models and that they are continuing work on their GPT models. So its not GPT5
"We also plan to continue developing and releasing models in our GPT series, in addition to the new OpenAI o1 series.
@AkramChoudhary they absolutely played with the naming scheme. we had gpt-3.5, gpt-4, then we got turbo, omni and now openai-1. and, the name of the next model might be gpt-next.
@CampbellHutcheson gpt next is a placeholder. o1 is a separate series. they didnt play with the name
"We also plan to continue developing and releasing models in our GPT series, in addition to the new OpenAI o1 series."
https://openai.com/index/introducing-openai-o1-preview/
https://openai.com/index/introducing-openai-o1-preview/
Given this, we are resetting the counter back to 1 and naming this series OpenAI o1.
This could imply it's a naming scheme switch and that this is GPT-5. But it's not certain.
I sold my position just in case.
EDIT: I overlooked
We also plan to continue developing and releasing models in our GPT series, in addition to the new OpenAI o1 series.
Smells like a NO to me, releasing 2 models this close together is a stretch.
@StefanG The question says:
> there will clearly be no future model named GPT-5
So if they reset the counter back to 1, it still implies there could be an o5 model in the future, even if it takes a few years. IMO should resolve to No unless OpenAI clearly rules out GPT-5 or if they clearly state GPT-o1 is "GPT-5".
https://mashable.com/article/openai-clarifies-no-gpt-next-not-a-new-model
Not sure, was this misunderstanding why people were betting this up?
@TimothyJohnson5c16 Are they just saying that GPT Next is a placeholder name? That would be pretty obvious, given the quotation marks around it. That slide they showed is basically equivalent to what Kevin Scott (CTO Microsoft) said here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R5VzcPhRVvg&t=119s. And he's definitely talking about a specific plan here, not something hypothetical.
@majorj Not even a placeholder - this article says "GPT Next" is "a figurative representation of where OpenAI models are headed next." It doesn't actually refer to a specific model.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 What do you make of that video then? Isn't he basically saying what is in that slide?
@majorj There was a lot of misinformation that GPT Next or even GPT-4 Next (totally made up) would be real models, but I guess it's plausible it literally doesn't refer to anything specific. I think it's still meaningful that they put 2024 below it. I do think it says something about their plans.