Will a Rogue Artificial Intelligence cause at least 1 million deaths before 2045?
Will a Rogue Artificial Intelligence cause at least 1 million deaths before 2045?
Mini
3
Ṁ90
2045
24%
chance

Resolution Criteria:

  1. The Al's actions must be unexpected and not reasonably predictable by its operators. Incidents where operators were aware of the risks but ignored them do not count.

  2. Deaths resulting from human decisions, where Al serves merely as a tool or assistant, are excluded (war, etc).

  3. The question concerns the total number of deaths caused by Al. Multiple deadly incidents from different Al systems will be combined if it occurs within 365 days.

Background:

The potential for a rogue Al system to autonomously cause large-scale harm is a significant concern within the field of Al safety. This issue relates specifically to the Al alignment problem, which involves ensuring that advanced Al systems act in accordance with human values and intentions as they become more autonomous. Researchers at organizations such as the Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI) have emphasized the dangers of failing to solve this alignment problem, warning that highly capable Al systems, if misaligned, could lead to potentially catastrophic outcomes.

#AI
#️ Technology
#Technical AI Timelines
#OpenAI
#AGI
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Comments
2 Holders
4 Trades


What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with S Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
Learn more.

Related questions