Will Nuclear Fusion supply power to an electric grid before 2050?
Will Nuclear Fusion supply power to an electric grid before 2050?
4
Ṁ522049
70%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolution Criteria
“Yes” Resolution:
The market resolves to Yes if before January 1st 2050, at least one nuclear fusion facility meets these requirements:The facility must demonstrate a net energy gain, producing more electrical energy than the total energy required to sustain and operate the reactor
Is connected to a power grid (so that homes, businesses, or other customers use this electricity).
Maintains a net electrical output of at least 1 megawatt to the grid.
Operates under the above conditions for a sustained period of at least 30 consecutive days.
“No” Resolution:
If no such fusion power plant has met the above conditions by January 1st 2050, the market resolves to No.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with
Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
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