Will Trump pass Harris on Manifold [>=1%, 1 day avg]
40
Ṁ10kNov 5
56%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if Trumps probability of winning the election is 1% or more higher than Harris according to https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964 over a 24 hour rolling averaged period.
Resolves NO if this has not occurred by Nov. 4 11:59PM PT (day before election).
Inspired by other market, but with caveat that he must lead over an 24hr period by >=1%.
Clarification: Trump must lead by >=1.0% over a 24 hour rolling average (if required I will use calculate out to 1-decimal place).
Edit: I will not bet in this market.
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Related questions
Related questions
Trump to pass Harris?
52% chance
When will Harris overtake Trump in Nate Silver's Presidential forecast?
When will Trump pass Harris on “electionbettingodds”?
Largest gap between Trump/Harris in betting odds
24% chance
Will Harris get over 75% of the vote on Manifold?
79% chance
When will Trump overtake Harris in 538's Presidential forecast?
In the 2024 US election, will Manifold be within the top 25% accuracy among all large prediction markets?
50% chance
If Trump wins, will Manifold users vote that his performance has been better than they expected by the midterms?
38% chance
If Trump posts a screenshot/link to Manifold, will the 2024 US Presidential Election swing by more than 10% within 24h?
56% chance
Election Derivatives: What will Trump's Manifold odds be the day before the election?