By 2028, given a one-page description of a task X, AI can download and fine-
tune existing open source LLMs for X?
Mini
7
Ṁ942028
52%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Given a one-page description of the task, download and fine- tune an existing open source LLM, without more input from humans.
The fine-tune must improve the performance of the LLM on some predetermined benchmark metric.
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Related questions
Related questions
By 2028, given a one-page description of a task X, AI can download and fine-
tune existing open source LLMs for X?
POLL
In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)
84% chance
Will OpenAI reveal a textless LLM before 2025?
4% chance
Will xAI develop a more capable LLM than GPT-5 by 2026
50% chance
By 2025 end, will it be generally agreed upon that LLM produced text/code > human text/code for training LLMs?
20% chance
By 2028 will we be able to identify distinct submodules/algorithms within LLMs?
76% chance
Will any widely used LLM be pre-trained with abstract synthetic data before 2030?
74% chance
By 2029 end, will it be generally agreed upon that LLM produced text/code > human text/code for training LLMs?
77% chance
Will the most interesting AI in 2027 be a LLM?
52% chance
On Dec 31, 2025, will a widely available AI model be able to write a sophisticated 2000 line program?
61% chance