MANIFOLD
BrowseUS ElectionNewsAbout
Will the mean score for The Foundation Model Transparency Index be 50% or more by the end of 2025? (current: 37%)
Mini
2
Ṁ8
Dec 31
52%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL

The mean score is a just 37%. Yet, 82 of the indicators are satisfied by at least one developer, meaning that developers can significantly improve transparency by adopting best practices from their competitors.

https://crfm.stanford.edu/fmti/

#AI
#Technical AI Timelines
#AI Safety
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Comments

Related questions

Humanity's Last Exam score in 2025?
-
Will any model get above human level on the Simple Bench benchmark before September 1st, 2025.
4% chance
Top score on Humanity's Last Exam > 50% by 2029?
94% chance
By the end of 2035, will any country score 95/9.5 or higher on one of the two major economic freedom indexes?
29% chance
Will an AI score over 80% on FrontierMath Benchmark in 2025
10% chance
Will any AI model achieve > 40% on Frontier Math before 2026?
-7% 1d68% chance
Top score on Humanity's Last Exam > 50% by 2027?
86% chance
Top score on Humanity's Last Exam > 50% by 2028?
95% chance
What % will the Project 2025 tracker be at in 2025?
-
What will be the best score (5/5 reliability) on ZeroBench by December 31st 2025?

Related questions

Humanity's Last Exam score in 2025?
-
Will any AI model achieve > 40% on Frontier Math before 2026?
68% chance
Will any model get above human level on the Simple Bench benchmark before September 1st, 2025.
4% chance
Top score on Humanity's Last Exam > 50% by 2027?
86% chance
Top score on Humanity's Last Exam > 50% by 2029?
94% chance
Top score on Humanity's Last Exam > 50% by 2028?
95% chance
By the end of 2035, will any country score 95/9.5 or higher on one of the two major economic freedom indexes?
29% chance
What % will the Project 2025 tracker be at in 2025?
-
Will an AI score over 80% on FrontierMath Benchmark in 2025
10% chance
What will be the best score (5/5 reliability) on ZeroBench by December 31st 2025?
BrowseElectionNewsAbout