Which seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next general election for the House of Representatives?
Which seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next general election for the House of Representatives?
Mini
8
Ṁ111May 31
1D
1W
1M
ALL
77%
Wills
76%
Canberra
60%
Lingiari
52%
Brisbane
50%
Lyons
50%
Macnamara
50%
Tangney
50%
Boothby
50%
Gilmore
40%
Menzies
31%
Bennelong
31%
Fowler
An answer will resolve YES if the named electorate elects a Labor candidate to the House of Representatives at the next Australian federal election. A Labor candidate is a candidate belonging to the Labor Party who has not been disendorsed by the party. By-elections do not affect this market.
Seats are coloured according to the party affiliation of the incumbent MP.
If you would like to suggest other electorates for this market, please feel welcome to do so in the comments.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
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Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.Get started for free! No credit card required.
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By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
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