I'm surprised that this market isn't much higher; limit at 30% up for whoever wants to fill! Any EU country? 2050??

Oh well, same people who were betting Trump down to 45%. Against Joe Biden and then Kamala Harris.

@stardust The EU just really loves freedom, so the chance that a country will begin to "mass-expel" Muslims is just hard to believe. But It's pretty funny to say that the market is way too low at 26% and then set a large limit order at 30%. Sounds like it isn't too far off 🙃

@Pazzaz Writing on the wall. If the EU stays how it is right now for 25 years, sure, it won't happen. 25 years is a lot of time for people to reject this degenerate liberal world order.

It's pretty funny to say that the market is way too low at 26% and then set a large limit order at 30%. Sounds like it isn't too far off

I have a limited amount of mana, plus am not a gambling man in general. So I only make bets which I think are very profitable. @skibidist can attest to this; I bought some of his very-obviously-will-resolve-no markets down to 20% and no further.

Why bet it up to 60% when I can expect that you guys will fill me at 30? It's just common sense.

For that to happen, among other things, the European Court of Human Rights would need to be disrespected, and that is not even an EU Institution.

I don't think our institutions are that weak. I expect EU countries to become more pro-immigration overall, because of demographic pressures.

I do not wish for it whatsoever but i'm almost certain it will happen. Many eastern bloc countries as well as Scandinavia are moving towards a scary extent of nationalist/religious populism

How would that happen? I don’t think even Hungary is approaching that level of cruelty and bigotry.

@NicoDelon 27 years is a lot of time. Go back 3x that and there is Hitler.

@lukres Right, three times that, before the European Union existed and before decolonization.

@NicoDelon I mean, there was a genocide of Muslims in a now EU-candidate country 28 years ago. The current conditions appear somewhat stable across the continent, but human nature being what it is, anything can happen. The monkey just needs a grievance and an outgroup.

@lukres But that’s the thing. If such a country is then admitted they have huge incentives not to that which would most likely cause them to be expelled from the union. I’m not saying it can’t happen. Just skeptical of the pathways.