Will Anthropic announce one of their AI systems is ASL-4 or higher before the end of 2025?
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10
Ṁ2882026
7%
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“announce” means Anthropic or its leadership put out public messaging that clearly, credibly, and without hedging, asserts one of their AI systems is ASL-4 or higher
“ASL-4 or higher” refers to Anthropic’s own Responsible Scaling Policy, which describes AI Safety Level 4 and higher as follows:
ASL-4 and higher (ASL-5+) is not yet defined as it is too far from present systems, but will likely involve qualitative escalations in catastrophic misuse potential and autonomy.
If Anthropic announces one of their AI systems has achieved ASL-4 or higher before the end of 2025, this resolves YES. Otherwise, resolves NO on 1 Jan 2026.
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